A Web-based Expert System for Gypsy Moth Risk Assessment

The gypsy moth is one of North America's most devastating exotic forest pests because it can cause the loss of valuable oak species, degraded aesthetics, loss of wildlife habitat, and detrimental effects on watersheds. Due to the increasingly wide infestation of the gypsy moth, it is important to develop decision aids that help assess the risks of this pest to our forests. Expert systems are a type of decision aid that could be applied to the area of risk assessment. We have developed the Gypsy Moth Expert System to estimate the risk that a forest stand faces from the gypsy moth based on the composition, structure, and management objectives of a particular forest. Risk assessment in this context is developed from forest susceptibility to infestation, vulnerability to damage caused by an infestation, and the hazard that management objectives for a forest may be affected if damage occurs. The system uses a straightforward set of if-then rules to classify risk. The development of a web-based expert system presented significant challenges to maintaining remote user processing